Strategy in Disruptive Times

Last year, Bayes Business School published ‘The Future Charity Chair’ based on the feedback of those serving in such roles. One of the resulting themes were the challenges respondents saw around planning and strategy. 

Some said how they had to ‘constantly revisit and adapt the strategy’, that ‘strategic planning was an iterative & evolving process’ and that the future was seen as ‘increasingly volatile, complex and uncertain’.

Such sentiments echo those I have heard from working with hospices. The impact of uncontrollable existential forces has led to people questioning the wisdom of ambitious, multi-year strategies.  

With frequent stories of  hospices cutting services some have asked if such an approach is delusional, even duplicitous? Will staff really buy into it? Should standing still be seen as an achievement in itself? Or does this approach lead to a state of learned helplessness and self-pity? 

What has often resulted is that many have focused on a few over-arching themes. For example, financial sustainability, more emphasis  on community services, retaining and developing workforce and  digital investment. These themes are reviewed every year or two, with more detailed short term plans produced of how to achieve them.

If this approach makes sense to you, then the following strategic tools might be helpful. 

In Nonprofit Scenario Planning in an Age of Chaos, US consultancy La Piana propose a scenario based approach (good, neutral, bad or catastrophic) combined with a ‘Must do, Won’t do, Might do’ analysis of activities. This can serve as  a flexible framework for planning.  

Another model that lends itself to our sector is Simon Sinek's The Golden Circle. This priorities starting with “Why” (purpose) before addressing “How” (process) and “What” (results) creating a clear sense of mission that drives decision-making and stakeholder engagement.

Finally, McKinsey’s Three Horizons model. This was originally devised for innovation, but like the best models can be easily adapted for other purposes.  Using it gives the opportunity to plan future operations around the following framework. (Different definitions of the horizons are used by different people.)

Horizon 1: Maintain and improve core operations (e.g. hospice care delivery) 
Horizon 2: Expand new initiatives (e.g. partnerships, digital care).
Horizon 3: Experiment with transformational ideas (e.g. AI in palliative care).

Each horizon can be related to a different timescale of your choice and you can decide how you allocate resource between each. 

Whatever approach you take and whatever your default outlook, sunny or cloudy, it’s wise to remember the Stockdale paradox.

“You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end - which you can never afford to lose - with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality - whatever they might be.”